The Great EU Cloud Breakup: A Quest for Digital Sovereignty
In the ever-evolving landscape of technology, a bold move is brewing within the European Union. European organizations are raising their voices, determined to reduce their reliance on US-based cloud giants like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. But here's where it gets controversial: is this a realistic goal, or just a pipe dream?
The driving force behind this movement is threefold. Firstly, geopolitical instability has cast a shadow of doubt on the reliability of US-based infrastructure, especially with laws like the CLOUD Act potentially forcing US companies to disclose data stored abroad. This creates a compliance nightmare for EU entities protected by GDPR.
Secondly, it's about data sovereignty. European companies and governments crave autonomy over their data, wanting control over its location, processing, and access. Relying on US providers raises concerns about data privacy and regulatory compliance, given the conflicting requirements between US laws and European privacy regulations.
And thirdly, it's an economic play. Shifting to local providers keeps more revenue within the EU, fostering innovation and strengthening the region's technological ecosystem. It's a long-term strategy to reduce Europe's dependence on external regions for critical technology platforms.
Forrester's Take: A Cautious Prediction
Forrester's 2026 European Predictions report suggests that while the desire for cloud sovereignty is clear and justified, the practical challenges are immense. The report highlights operational, economic, and technological constraints as major roadblocks to complete independence. However, it might be underestimating the growth and capabilities of alternative platforms within the EU.
Sovereign clouds, non-US providers, and local managed services are evolving rapidly, offering real alternatives. The question isn't so much about capacity or availability but about European companies' readiness to invest in a significant cloud strategy overhaul.
The EU's Three-Pronged Approach
The EU's efforts to disconnect from US cloud providers are driven by three key issues:
Geopolitical Instability: Concerns about relying heavily on US infrastructure have grown, especially with laws like the CLOUD Act potentially forcing US companies to disclose data stored abroad, creating compliance challenges for EU entities protected by GDPR.
Data Sovereignty: European companies and governments want more control over their data, including its location, processing, and access. Continued reliance on US providers raises questions about data privacy and regulatory compliance, given the conflicting requirements between US laws and European privacy regulations.
Economic Rationale: Shifting to local providers keeps more revenue within the EU, fostering innovation and strengthening the region's technological ecosystem. It's a long-term strategy to reduce Europe's dependence on external regions for critical technology platforms.
Forrester's Assessment: A Balanced View?
Forrester's assessment that Europe won't break free from US hyperscalers by 2026 is based on several key points: the lack of local capacity for large-scale workloads, the economic costs of shifting platforms, and the technical advantages of major American providers over their European competitors.
While these concerns are valid, they're not insurmountable. Sovereign cloud providers like OVHcloud and Deutsche Telekom's Open Telekom Cloud have been steadily improving, demonstrating their ability to handle workloads with compliance, transparency, and data residency within the EU. Additionally, cloud providers in other regions have advanced in scalability and support, offering logical alternatives to companies unwilling to depend on their American counterparts.
Local managed services providers further enhance these sovereign solutions by offering deployment and management expertise, helping organizations navigate potential skills gaps or operational complexities. Perhaps the issue isn't about capacity or capability but about organizations' preparedness to take on the costs, risks, and disruptions inherent in cloud migration.
The Challenge of Workload Migration
Moving workloads away from US hyperscalers is a significant challenge. Many European companies believe that the practicality of sticking with longstanding providers outweighs the potential benefits of independence. US-based hyperscalers offer economies of scale, cutting-edge innovation in areas like artificial intelligence and analytics, and sometimes generous pricing tied to long-term contracts. Smaller providers often can't compete with these advantages, making enterprises hesitant to commit to large-scale migrations.
Moreover, many organizations already operate in multicloud or hybrid cloud environments, making complete independence logistically and operationally complex. Even if a company transitions some workloads to sovereign clouds, a multicloud strategy will likely retain specific dependencies on US platforms. While this strategy can reduce geopolitical and regulatory risks, it introduces greater operational complexity, increasing costs and requiring advanced cloud management expertise.
The Future of EU Cloud Independence
Addressing the technical, financial, and operational challenges of reducing dependence on US-based cloud providers requires a structured approach, clear objectives, and practical steps. EU organizations need detailed planning and resource budgeting. Cloud sovereignty comes at a cost, and businesses must allocate resources carefully to ensure each step of the migration process is financially viable. Understanding the total cost of ownership, including initial migration costs, personnel training, long-term operational expenses, and investments in skills development for managing new systems, is crucial.
Businesses also need to prepare for multicloud complexity. Multicloud strategies are likely to dominate as companies test or gradually adopt sovereign cloud providers while maintaining some workloads with legacy providers. This approach requires more investment in cloud orchestration, governance, and security tools to manage multiple platforms efficiently and securely.
Ultimately, organizations must assess the long-term risks and viability of the new platforms they choose. Providers should be evaluated for their financial stability, scalability, and commitment to innovation. Neglecting this can lock businesses into subpar systems and expose them to new risks. Companies should also prepare for contingencies in case a selected provider doesn't meet expectations or faces operational issues over time.
Forrester's analysis might accurately predict that most European organizations will continue relying on US hyperscalers for the foreseeable future. However, it overlooks the growing availability of sovereign solutions already on the market. The tools and platforms are in place and evolving, but the responsibility lies with European companies to make the necessary decisions.
By focusing on detailed planning, accepting multicloud realities, and carefully evaluating future platform viability, EU businesses can develop a path that offers a better balance between practicality and sovereignty. Fully disconnecting from US-based providers may not be practical yet at a large scale, but change is possible. It just requires the will and readiness to act.
Conclusion: A Call to Action
The EU's quest for cloud independence is a complex journey, but it's a journey worth embarking on. With careful planning, strategic thinking, and a willingness to embrace change, European organizations can achieve a better balance between practicality and digital sovereignty. The tools are there; it's time to put them to use.
